高原气象

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2013 , Vol. 32 >Issue 5: 1329 - 1338

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00125.

论文

强降水过程气候态季节内振荡及其在延伸期预报中的应用

  • 梁萍 ,
  • 丁一汇
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  • 上海市气候中心, 上海200030;中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京100081

网络出版日期: 2013-10-28

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Climate Intraseasonal Oscillation of Heavy Rainfall Process and Its Application in Extend-Range Forecast

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Online published: 2013-10-28

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摘要

10天以上低频振荡属季节内变化尺度， 比高频天气扰动具有更长的可预报性， 是开展延伸预报的重要途径。利用1960-2010年上海地区逐日降水观测和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料， 采用非线性序列信号提取方法——经验模态分解（EEMD）， 首先分析了1960年以来上海地区强降水过程的气候态季节内振荡（CISO）特征， 进一步考察其对强降水过程的预报效果， 然后综合强降水过程CISO及其相联系的大气低频振荡进行强降水过程延伸预报改进试验。结果表明： （1）30天以上低频振荡演变的正、 负位相阶段分别与汛期强降水过程的集中期和间歇期相一致。10~30天低频振荡分量除对汛期集中降水期的强降水过程起调制作用外， 也是盛夏较强降水阶段性出现的重要原因。（2）就多年平均而言， 基于强降水过程的CISO可预报出汛期2/3左右强降水过程的发生时段， 是强降水过程延伸预报的重要依据。（3）上海地区强降水过程大多与其南、 北侧大气环流10~30天和30天以上准周期低频振荡的辐合相关， 其中西太平洋副热带高压与北方系统的低频振荡对5天以上持续性降水过程的发生有重要作用。在CISO的基础上, 结合大气环流低频振荡的辐合演变可进一步提高CISO对强降水过程的预报效果， 是一种可参考应用的延伸预报方法。

关键词： 季节内振荡; 延伸预报; 强降水过程; 集合经验模态分解

本文引用格式

梁萍 , 丁一汇 . 强降水过程气候态季节内振荡及其在延伸期预报中的应用[J]. 高原气象, 2013 , 32(5) : 1329 -1338 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00125.

Abstract

Low frequency oscillations (LFO) with periods over 10 d under intraseasonal scale are important means for extend-range forecast becauseof its relative longer predictabilitythan synoptic scale perturbation with high frequency. In this paper, taking Shanghai as an example, using the daily rainfall observation in Shanghai and global NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric circulation data for the period of 1960-2010, climate intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) of heavy rainfall process (HRP) in Shanghai is firstly investigated by means of a new kind of nonlinear serial signal processing method named as EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). And forecast effects on HRP basing on CISO are then evaluated. Finally, improvement experiments are tested by combining CISO of HRP and their relating LFO of atmosphericcirculation. The results show that: (1) Positive (negative) phases of LFO with periods over 30d are consistent with active (break) periods of HRP during rainy season. While LFO with 10~30 d periods can not only modulate occurrences of HRP during the two active periods but also do contribution to severe rainfall stage during mid-summer. (2) 2/3 HRP occurrences during rainy season can usually be predicted basing on CISO of HRP, which may be an important clue for its extend-range forecast. (3) HRP in Shanghai usually isin close association with LFO convergences under both 10~30 d and over 30 d intraseasonal scale from both south and north directions. The LFO of west Pacific subtropicalhigh and north systems exert important influences on continuous HRP lasting for more than 5 d. And the forecast effects can be improved by combining CISO of HRP and their relating LFO of atmosphericcirculation, which may be a kind of means with certain value in practice of extend-range forecast.

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