高原气象

高原气象 >

2015 , Vol. 34 >Issue 1: 258 - 268

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00105

论文

南京空域一次高空致灾冰粒过程的可预报性分析

  • 徐琪 ,
  • 慕熙昱 ,
  • 刘韻蕊 ,
  • 孙磊
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  • 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210093;2. 中国民用航空华东空中交通管理局江苏分局, 南京 210000;3. 江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京 210009

收稿日期: 2013-01-21

  网络出版日期: 2015-02-28

基金资助

公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306014); 国家自然科学基金青年项目(41105023); 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2010599)

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Analysis of Predictability on a High-Altitude Hail/Graupel Disaster Weather in Nanjing Airspace

  • XU Qi ,
  • MU Xiyu ,
  • LIU Yunrui ,
  • SUN Lei
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  • School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;2. Jiangsu Air Traffic Management Branch Bureau of CAAC, Nanjing 210000, China;3. Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing 210009, China

Received date: 2013-01-21

  Online published: 2015-02-28

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摘要

利用常规天气分析、雷达资料分析及数值模拟对2011年8月10日南京附近一次引发航空灾害的对流天气过程进行了研究.结果表明, 对飞机受损部位检查后推断此次灾害由雹击造成, 但是地面未观测到冰雹.当日南京处于副热带高压外围、河套低涡槽前的西南气流中, 且位于低层切变线附近, 具备发生强对流的潜在条件.垂直方向水汽呈上干下湿分布特征, 利于形成冰雹.雷达资料也分析出此次对流系统发展高度较高, 核心反射率因子强度较强, 垂直累积液态水含量及冰雹指数都较高.从雷达反射率分析得到中气旋、中层径向辐合等特征.此次对流系统的流场结构及动力配置与典型冰雹云一致.此次过程为多单体风暴引发的高空冰雹/霰过程.冰粒子尺寸小, 产生高度高, 地面温度高, 导致冰雹在下降过程中融化.

关键词： 冰雹; 雷达; 可预报性

本文引用格式

徐琪 , 慕熙昱 , 刘韻蕊 , 孙磊 . 南京空域一次高空致灾冰粒过程的可预报性分析[J]. 高原气象, 2015 , 34(1) : 258 -268 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00105

Abstract

Synoptic analysis, radar observation and numerical simulation are used to analyze a convection weather process occurred in Nanjing airspace on 10 August 2011 which causing aero damage. All analysis support a deduction that this damage caused by hail strike, but there was no hail observed on the ground. Since hail generates on high level of about thousands of meters, it may melt in the falling process and rain on the ground. Nanjing was northwestward to the subtropical high pressure zone and in the southwest flow before the trough of Hetao low pressure area at that day. It was near a low level shear line and had sufficient convective potential condition. Dry cold air distributed on upper level and warm wet air distributed on lower level. This structure is benefit to the generation of hail. Analysis of radar observation shows that this convective system developed very high. Reflectivity in the core was very strong. VIL and hail index all had high value. And there were meso-cyclone and middle altitude radial convergence in this system. The dynamic and flow structure of this system were corresponding to typical hail storm. This paper indicates that this high-altitude hail process was obviously predicted.

Key words： Hail; Radar; Predictability

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